We study why inflation responds differently to economic activity over time. Using survey data covering the universe of ...

Government has no resources. It can only spend what it’s taken from us first. Yet Keynesian economists (meaning the vast majority of economists) believe government spending boosts economic growth.

Repeat after me, class: Growth does NOT cause inflation. Write it on the blackboard 100 times. For decades, the economics profession has been trying to tell us all just the opposite. They keep ...

New data covering the period since May 2023 have continued to follow the path of a nonlinear Phillips curve that shows the relationship between inflation and a particular measure of labor market slack ...

Simulations using a Phillips curve-type relationship provide insights into the importance of demand versus supply for inflation over different periods. The decade of low inflation after the Great ...

We believe that the effects of Covid on the economy and financial markets are diminishing, and we believe that the Phillips curve is supporting this. Will history repeat in the second half of this ...

Higher inflation does not mean lower unemployment. Many assertions about monetary policy are based on the Phillips Curve, illustrated in the following chart, that posits a particular relationship ...

The bond market is still thinking about monetary policy through a Phillips Curve frame of mind. On the back of a strong employment report Friday, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds surged to a 16-year ...